Monthly News

Energy sector data

How is the structure of electricity production in Poland changing? What emissions are involved? What are the prices of fuels? Here is a summary of the most important data about the energy sector. Updated every month. 

 

December 2021 - emissions up

The end of the year brought a huge increase in tension in the energy system. Record energy demand in Poland and Europe, along with soaring gas and emission allowance prices, left a critical mark on the market to accelerate the transformation and diversification of the energy sector. 

The average monthly demand in December 2021 was 21.78 GW - the highest on record. It reached 27.18 GW at its peak (December 7, 5 p.m.). The huge demand for electricity in December forced Polish lignite power plants raise production. Compared to November, production from this fuel increased by a quarter, reaching 4.4 TWh - the highest since January 2017. Production from hard coal accounted for 48% of demand (7.4 TWh). Onshore wind power plants unfortunately failed to break their record, reaching only 1.8 TWh of monthly production. Overall, the share of RES in December production was 14.5% compared to 15% in November. Net electricity imports amounted to 4.6% of the country's energy consumption. 

High demand coupled with carbon-intensive coal-fired generation (estimated CO2 emissions in the power sector increased by 1 million tonnes compared to November) resulted in price increases not seen in Poland. The average price in the Day-Ahead Market was over 800 PLN/MWh. This is a 50% increase compared to November and as much as four times higher than in December 2020. The results of the Futures Market are not optimistic either. The average price of contracts with delivery for 2022 concluded in November 2021 was 461 PLN/MWh, and the CDS is estimated at over 80 PLN/MWh. 

Historically, January is the month with the highest average demand, which could further drive up emissions and wholesale prices and have a big impact on customers. 

The chart shows the electricity generation mix in Poland, divided into different technologies using fossil fuels or renewable sources. The primary source of electricity is hard coal and lignite, but the share of natural gas and RES is still growing.

 

Knowledge of the structure of electricity generation allows for the calculation of carbon dioxide emissions from power sector. CO2 emissions are calculated using reference fuel emission factors adopted by the Forum Energii (lignite: 1065 kg/MWh, hard coal: 900 kg/MWh, natural gas: 450 kg/MWh).

 

The chart shows a comparison of monthly electricity consumption and production in the current and previous year. Seasonality is clear - total energy consumption is highest in the winter months.

In the long run, the consumption is influenced on the one hand by economic development (which results in the increase of consumption) and on the other hand by progressive efforts in the field of energy efficiency (which results in the decrease of consumption). 

 

 

The total load in the Polish power system varies between 10 GW and 25 GW. The average value illustrates the situation in a respective month. Observing the monthly minimum and maximum values, leads to a conclusion that the summer months are characterized by significant variability of load and high demand peaks around noon.

 

The chart shows a comparison of weighted average monthly prices on Polish Power Exchange. The Commodity Forward Instruments Market covers about 80% of the electricity volume traded on the Polish Power Exchange.

The two most important instruments relate to energy supply 24 hours a day (BASE) and 7:00 - 22:00 (PEAK5). The contracts are concluded with future delivery (max. 3 years). The vast majority of transactions on the exchange concern purchase of energy with supply in the nearest calendar year (n+1).

 

Using the contracts concluded in a given month, the volume weighted average index BASE_n+1 and PEAK5_n+1 was calculated. This reflects the long-term situation on the electricity market.

The TGeBase index, on the other hand, concerns the Day-Ahead Market (with next-day delivery) - it reflects the short-term market situation and is characterized by high volatility. The monthly weighted average is usually lower than the prices on the Commodity Forward Instruments Market, and the seasonality is less prominent.

The current situation in the power sector, hour after hour, can also be followed by looking at Forumetr

 
 
 

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