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Integrating Variable Renewables in Poland | Eight points on integrating variable renewable energy to the Polish power system

The Polish energy mix is changing. While absolute figures still show a rather small share of variable renewables in the generation mix, these will play a growing role in the future. The study of Forum Energii presents eight main areas of action that facilitate the further integration of the renewables in the specific context of a changing Polish power system.   

Heating transformation 2030 | Small district heating systems

87.5% (463 out of 529) of all district heating systems in Poland do not have the status of efficient systems. They must change this if they want to maintain access to public aid in the future and continue to provide Poles with heat at a reasonable price. 

Polish energy sector 2050 | 4 scenarios

What will be the result if Poland keeps its energy mix based on coal, introduces nuclear power or promotes renewables? Forum Energii analysed four different scenarios for the development of the Polish energy sector over the next 30 years. Report presents the economic, social and environmental implications of their imple­mentation.  

Ensuring reliability of the power system and capacity mechanisms

A stable and reliable supply of energy is the foundation of national energy security, yet it should not burden end users with excessive costs. On the one hand, it is important to keep electricity prices low, as they are the driving force behind economic development and provide opportunities for industrial development. On the other hand, wholesale energy prices should be sufficient to maintain the generating fleet. Since wholesale electricity prices fell to the lowest level in years, concerns have arisen over ensuring an adequate level of capacity and securing stable power system operations in Poland.

Revenues from ETS auctioning as source of financing for low-emission modernization in Poland

Revenues from auctioning of the national pool of ETS allowances may become the major source of financing for low-emission modernization of energy sector in the coming decade (2021-2030).

Elements of new market design for Poland

Both the European power sector at large and the Polish power sector in particular find themselves at a pivotal moment. Power systems are in transition, driven by commitments to continuing emissions reductions, growing penetration of renewables, and the need to provide affordable and reliable power. 

Risk preparedness in an integrated European electricity market

An integrated European electricity market will benefit consumers through lower prices, more cost-effective integration of renewable resources, and improved system reliability. A central question often asked in the context of the IEM is: can Poland rely on resources from neighbouring countries in a crisis situation? Is it safe to integrate market when national transmission system operators (TSOs) are responsible for managing energy systems in Europe.

Options for integration of the Polish energy market within the European Union

Forum Energii examined how the integration of the energy market, one of the priorities of the European Union, will affect wholesale electricity prices in Poland. Depending on the option to integrate markets (with which country the merger takes place and what is its capacity), the wholesale price of electricity in Poland may fall by up to 5%, i.e. by about PLN 8 per MWh.

Efficient use of Modernization Fund

On October 24, 2014, the European Council established the Modernization Fund (MF) for years 2021–2030 supplied with revenue from the sale of 2% of the total pool of CO2 emission allowances. The instrument is to support the modernization of power system and the improvement of energy efficiency in EU Member States, where GDP per capita in 2013 was lower than 60% of EU average (in nominal terms). 

Electricity and industrial competitiveness

Industrial competitiveness is at the centre of the Polish debate about the future (and the logic) of climate and energy policy. There is a widely held opinion that low prices are the most important condition for a thriving industry. 

Poland's Energy Policy 2040 in the spotlight

Probable delays of the nuclear energy project, insufficient attention to energy costs and the risk of non-compliance with EU climate and energy targets – these are some of the comments of Forum Energii on the draft Poland’s Energy Policy.

COP24 - what next with the climate policy in the EU?

The practical impact of the climate summit agreements on EU and Polish policy is rarely appreciated. Meanwhile, climate policy will be an important point of reference in discussions on integrated national plans, national long-term strategies, or when setting the financial framework for 2021-2027. What are the conclusions of COP24 and, above all, what to expect this year?

Flexibility of the Polish power system | Diagnosis, potential, solutions

Flexibility of the power system means its ability to maintain uninterrupted operation under conditions of rapid and huge fluctuations in electricity consumption generation. It is an inherent part of the system design and control of its operation. In the analysis, Forum Energii puts forward solutions supporting the improvement of  the national power system flexibility. In addition to reducing the costs of the power sector and the improvement in quality and reliability of the electricity supply, their objective is to reduce emissions by the power sector.    

Clean heat 2030 | Strategy for heating

In the report "Clean Heat 2030. Strategy for heating" Forum Energii examined how to make heating no longer a source of smog in Poland by 2030 in a cost-effective and socially acceptable way. According to the analysis, health costs of pollutants can be reduced by 50% within a decade and dust emissions from individual heating by 91%. At the same time, CO2 emissions from heating will fall by 30%. 

Locational market in Poland. Security of supply, costs and the impact on the energy transition

In the latest report Locational market in Poland. Security of supply, costs and impact on the energy transition, Forum Energii recommends changes on the energy market in Poland. It is a response to the emerging problems of the Polish energy transformation - high prices, ageing infrastructure, dominant share of coal. As an example, it presents the functioning of the electricity markets in the United States.

Small steps to big changes | Impact of the "Clean Energy..." package on power sector

We are starting to implement new EU energy regulations. Will the "Clean energy for all Europeans" package heal the Polish energy sector and give it an impulse for development? How can the energy consumer benefit from the changes? In Forum Energii's report "Small steps to big changes", we analyse the provisions of the Package and their consequences for Poland. 

From the Loire to the Vistula River | Three steps in planning the energy transition

Polish-French relations have become a bit difficult lately. When President Macron said in an interview that the Paris climate protesters should move to Warsaw because it is Poland that is blocking European climate ambitions, Poland was in turmoil. Leaving aside the emotions, it is worth looking at how the French are coping with the energy transformation. This is what the new analysis of the Forum Energii is about.

Heating in Poland | 2019 edition

While the battle for new climate targets for 2050 is under way in Brussels, many Polish cities and villages are already struggling with smog. Forum Energii gathered the most important data on heating in order to highlight the importance of heating, which is treated as a poor cousin of the energy sector. 

Poland: climate neutrality by 2050. Electrification and sector coupling

Electrification sets the direction of inevitable changes in many areas of our lives, including transport and heating. This direction will force a closer cooperation of various sectors of the economy with the future, completely different from today's power system. The integration of three industries — transportation, heat, and power generation— is the new concept for the operation of the entire energy sector. What can it look like in 2050? How will the necessary changes bring Poland closer to the goal of climate neutrality? Forum Energii in the new analysis convinces that a good strategy of sector coupling is a benefit for the Polish economy and society.      

How Poland can reach higher GHG emission reduction targets by 2030

At least 55%—this is the reductions target proposed by the European Commission for greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2030. There is no turning back from increasingly demanding climate policy. In its latest analysis, Forum Energii shows how Poland can meet this policy.

Heat electrification in Poland | The path to clean heat

Despite the government's declarations, progress in improving air quality in Poland has been poor. The rate of modernisation of buildings is slow, and public funds continue to support the replacement of old coal boilers with other coal-fired options, which other European countries have phased out. Meanwhile, a huge stream of European money will be flowing towards 'clean heat' in the coming years. In the newest analysis from the Forum Energii, we explain why it is worth betting on electrification of heating, identify which technologies have a future, and explore how this will affect the energy system.  

Energy transition in Poland | 2021 Edition

The production of electricity from coal in Poland is decreasing. For the first time in the country’s history, in 2020 coal’s share in the generation mix dropped below 70%. Renewable sources have slowly started to play a more important role in the mix, as well as gas. In the midst of the pandemic, domestic production has fallen faster than demand, and this gap is filled by energy imports. Poland remains the most expensive electricity market in the region.

The cost of carbon-free buildings and transport: the EU’s plans and Poland's challenges

Work on the European Green Deal is accelerating. The main tool to achieve the new targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the EU will be the Fit for 55 package. Among its key elements is support for reducing CO2 emissions from buildings and transport. For Poland, this debate will be uncomfortable because over the course of three decades, not only has pollution not decreased but it has increased considerably in transport. This results in terrible air quality in Poland. Catching up, which is necessary for both climate reasons and the modernisation of outdated infrastructure and improvement of air quality, will be a challenge. The introduction of emission charges is intended to help. In its latest study, Forum Energii proposes measures to internalise the external costs of emissions in a way that is smooth, gradual, and socially acceptable.

Visegrad Electromobility | State, perspectives and challenges

Transport accounts for the largest share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the European Union and is the only sector in which emissions have been increasing in recent years. The goal of climate neutrality and the increased reduction target for 2030 will not be achievable without a revolution in transport, as confirmed by the ‘Fit for 55’ package published by the European Commission. Given the years of a lack of effective policies in this area in the Visegrad countries, implementing appropriate measures to reduce emissions from transport becomes an urgent challenge. The hope is in electrification, especially of passenger cars.

Ready for 55%. A guide to financing the energy transition from 2021

It’s PLN 560 billion [EUR 124 bln]. This is the amount Poland can allocate for the energy transition and phaseout of coal thanks to EU membership. This is a historic opportunity to shift the Polish economy—including the energy sector—to the low-carbon track and develop new industries. Although last year the Polish government declared the intention to pursue climate neutrality in line with EU policy, Poland’s decision-makers are anxious that the country will not be able to handle the challenge of decarbonisation. At the same time, the government’s relations with EU institutions are deteriorating, making talks about the EU funds difficult. So then, what resources are at stake?

Distribution grids and electromobility. Planning and development

In recent days, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced an acceleration in the development of electromobility. By 2030, 145,000 charging points are to be built in Britain, and from 2022 all new residential and office buildings will have to be equipped with chargers. This is just one of the announcements of the global revolution in transportation. In Poland the pace and character of changes have different dimension. The National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management (NFOŚiGW) has just announced a programme of subsidies for the construction of charging stations for electric and hydrogen vehicles as well as PLN 1 billion support for operators to develop distribution networks.

Charge, Set, Go! | Electrifying Urban Transport in Germany and Poland

When more than 40 countries signed the Katowice Partnership for E-Mobility at the 24th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 24) in Katowice in 2018, it set a milestone for a global approach for the electrification of mobility and the decarbonisation of the transport sector. For Poland and Germany, as the sixth-largest and largest passenger car markets in Europe by sales, it was yet another confirmation of a lived reality. Dedicated friendship and strong long lasting economic cooperation are characteristic for the relationship of both countries and the motto of the framework, Driving Change Together, reflects their joint ambition for the electrification of the transport sector.

Clean heat as an engine for the Polish economy

A new approach to heating is needed in Poland. It is currently a neglected area where the necessary changes and modernisation have been postponed for years. As a result, every winter we have the most polluted air in the European Union and the Polish district heating system is on the verge of collapse. The costs and scale of the investments needed are enormous, but further delays will lead to an even higher prices.

Energy transition in Poland | 2022 Edition

On top of the economic slowdown in 2020 caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 was the next year when the cards dealt unexpected circumstances that diverged from the previous years of stability. In Europe, we experienced an energy crisis marked by sharp spikes in gas prices and CO2 emission costs. The wartime reality of 2022 means even more uncertainty and market volatility with energy security and independence from imported raw materials becoming the most important topics. Poland continues drifting along in the modernisation of the energy sector, as clearly indicated by data collected by Forum Energii in its annual report “Energy Transition in Poland”.

Cutting energy bills before winter

The upcoming winter will be difficult for many Polish households due to high costs of heat and electricity. In the latest report by Forum Energii, more than 30 concrete measures are listed. They can be implemented easily and at a low (or even none) cost before the heating season. This will reduce bills and improve the country's energy security.  

Energy in Belchatow After Lignite

Transitioning Europe's largest coal power plant to a secure, resilient, affordable clean energy future. New study outlines a transition plan for Europe’s largest coal-fired power plant, located in Belchatow, Poland.

To accelerate the development of RES

The Polish energy system urgently needs an accelerated development of new renewable capacity. Work is underway in the Polish parliament to liberalise the 10 H distance rule, which stemmed development of onshore wind. Changing this rule is one of the most important decisions on which the success of Poland's energy transition lies. The seemingly small change in the location of investments from the originally planned 500 m to 700 m from residential buildings - is a significant reduction in the potential for wind energy development.   This is one of the most high-profile examples of how renewable energy sources are still treated by decision-makers as an unwanted addition to the energy system and face development barriers. Other problems include the length and complexity of the process of locating investments and obtaining planning permits, as well as the lack of connection capacity for installations. In the latest Forum Energii report, we propose solutions to optimise administrative processes and increase the technical capacity to connect new RES projects to the grid.   

Poland's support in the energy crisis. Last call for NRP

If Poland does not come to an agreement on the NRP in the coming months - it will be too late for sensible spending of the money available to the country. By the end of June, the Polish government may present to the European Commission changes to the spending plan for the National Recovery Plan - completed with investments to increase resilience to the energy crisis. Consultations with the EC are just starting. This is the last bell for Poland to reach for loans and grants under the the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the REPowerEU plan. How to change the Polish NRP to make it a practical response to the energy crisis?

Energy transition in Poland | 2023 edition

2022 was another year of unexpected events. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine changed Europe’s approach to fossil fuel imports, particularly from Russia. The resulting energy crisis triggered by high gas prices and the decline in nuclear and hydroelectric production led to record high energy prices across Europe. These events are changing the way European countries look at the energy transition. Meanwhile, the modernisation of the Polish energy sector is still very slow. An overview of the increasingly comprehensive data on the energy sector is published by Forum Energii in the sixth edition of the report ‘Energy Transition in Poland. Edition 2023’.

Why Paris is important?

The final phase of negotiations aimed at counteracting climate change has commenced in Paris. For the first time in 8 years there is a real chance to sign a global agreement. Two countries which have been the most sceptical till now and, at the same time, responsible for the biggest greenhouse gas emissions - the USA and China, have decided to limit the emissions and, among others, to develop renewable energy resources.

Is isolationism profitable?

Below you will find opinion on the article concerning the text entitled "Import of cheap energy – higher costs for consumers" by Prof. Władysław Mielczarski, Ph.D. Eng., Łódź University of Technology, BiznesAlert, published on the CIRE website (in Polish) on the September 7, 2015.

Benefits from rising prices of CO2 emission allowances

Discussions about rising prices of CO2 emission allowances will not remain silent. When buyers pay more, the state budget gains. Poland should allocate these funds for low-carbon modernisation. 

The amendment to the Energy Law Act lowers the rank of the Poland's energy policy

The draft amendment to the Energy Law (October 2018) prepares the implementation of the EU requirement to submit integrated national plans in the field of energy and climate. The regulations proposed in this form, however, lower the rank of the national energy policy. They also change the mode of appointing the President of the Energy Regulatory Office, which may affect its independence. This is worrying.  

How much is 550 g after the end of the European negotiations?

Negotiations on the EU regulation on the electricity market were concluded on  December 19, 2018. For Poland it was the last and most controversial element of the Winter Package. Since 2017, the European Parliament and the Council discussed how to formulate regulations introducing a CO2 emission limit of 550 g/kWh of electricity produced. They are to apply to the capacity markets.

Poland’s Energy and Climate Plan to 2030 – not sufficient EU perspective

The National Energy and Climate Plan 2021-2030  is the second strategic document for the Polish energy sector in addition to the long-awaited Poland’s Energy Policy until 2040. It will affect, among other things, investments in the energy sector, the implementation of our international commitments, energy security and improvement of air quality. Therefore, it should not only describe the current state of the Polish energy sector, but above all define future objectives and determine measures and actions to achieve them.

Energy and climate targets until 2050

The national energy and climate plans and their assessment (objectives, instruments, financing) by the European Commission are a major qualitative change in the process of developing and implementing the EU energy and climate policy. Until now, energy and climate targets have been scattered across many pieces of legislation and are now linked by the overarching objective of climate neutrality in 2050 resulting from the Paris Agreement.

Clean heat 2030 | Costs and benefits

It would not be an exaggeration to say that domestic heating, both district heating and individual, is ahead of the historic bend. If we get into this turn right, we will be very successful, if not, the results may be significant.   

Power sector after the elections | Three tasks for the new government

The Polish energy sector is at a turning point. What will the next government find after the elections in the autumn? It will inherit not only electricity market, but also smog.  

Climate neutrality - empty watchword or concrete goal? | The French perspective

After June negotiations at the European Council, climate neutrality is no longer an abstract concept used by international experts, but is becoming a widely commented issue of public interest. As Michał Kurtyka, President of COP24 in Katowice, said at one of the meetings of Forum Energii:  "Climate neutrality is a civilisational choice for Europe".

Will the revenues from CO2 emissions disappear into thin air?

Low emission energy transition will cost up to 200 billion EUR in the years to come. This impressive amount may suggest that Poland cannot afford to invest in the power or heating sectors. Meanwhile, building a safe and reliable system is crucial for citizens, economy and climate. It is high time to look at potential sources of financing for low-carbon modernisation, and make sure they do not vanish into the budget. 

DEcarbonization in Germany 2030

Just before the UN climate summit in New York, the CDU/CSU and SPD coalition announced new ideas on how to achieve Germany's 2030 climate targets. For now, these are mainly national measures, but a similar discussion and perhaps similar solutions will emerge at European level. This will have a significant impact on the EU regulations concerning the energy sector, and thus also on Poland.

Draft Poland's Energy Policy 2040 - new and better?

On the 8th of November 2019, the Ministry of Energy has presented an updated draft of Poland's Energy Policy until 2040. Yet, the adoption of the energy strategy will be the responsibility of the new government, including new ministries - the Ministry of State Assets and the Ministry of Climate. In our opinion, it is high time for Poland to address the climate and energy crisis. It is also important for us to start implementing the commitments made at the EU forum. The energy sector should be given a course in line with international trends, and not be allowed to float in a random direction.

Climate neutrality – Poland is in favour and even against | A talk about the results of the last European Council

What actually happened at the recent European Council? Poland supported the goal of climate neutrality or quite the contrary? What can be expected in the coming months? Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk and Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera discuss the results of the European Council conclusions and its implications.

RES auctions in Poland | Results and trends

The RES auction marathon is behind us and we finally know the final result. Twelve auctions for various technological baskets, for new and existing installations, were held during three weeks. The contracted 90.3 TWh of new, green electricity for 15 years is worth PLN 20.2 billion. As much as 86% of this volume will be purchased at prices lower than those currently prevailing on the wholesale electricity market. This is another proof that renewable energy sources can compete with conventional units without additional support. 

Just Transition Fund - we will benefit, but under conditions

The European Commission presented a draft regulation on the Just Transition Fund. This is an instrument to bring the UE closer to achieving climate neutrality in 2050 and prevent possible social exclusion. Although Poland proposed the creation of the fund, we missed the discussion about its shape.

Fighting on the wrong front. Polish gvernment intends to subsidise energy consumption instead of fighting energy poverty

The Ministry of State Assets announces subsidies to energy bills for people earning less than 5 000 net per month. The reaction to the increase in electricity prices in Poland has shown that politicians are so afraid of this subject. However, they have no good idea how to solve it.   

2020 RES target: what if Poland does not reach it?

Poland, along several other European Union Member States, is unlikely to meet its national 15% renewable energy target for 2020 on time[1]. However, despite the possibility to impose sanctions for failure to meet national obligations, including financial penalties, the European Commission is not interested in punishing countries just for the sake of punishment. The potential consequences for countries that are lagging behind should be understood rather as a means of mobilising them to catch up, but also to increase their ambitions to meet the second of the EU RES targets - the one set in the 2030 horizon.

European Climate Law - Back to the Future

On 4 March the European Commission has just presented a draft climate law. Its most important point is the commitment to achieve the EU's climate neutrality by 2050. But the Commission also announces an increase in the shorter term reduction target for 2030. This is an aspect that Poland needs to pay particular attention to, as we will not avoid discussing how to get closer to this target in next ten years.

Will the coronavirus slow down or speed up the low carbon energy transition in Poland?

The world is in chaos. The priority is to stop the spread of the virus and contain the crisis. A stable energy supply is crucial - it's hard to imagine what would happen if there was no power or heat supply now. The million dollar question however, how will the current crisis affect the energy transformation in the long term?

Investment in the energy sector as a remedy for the crisis

After a few weeks of the pandemic in Poland, we know for sure that the virus will infect the economy, even as we finally get rid of it ourselves. We need to act decisively right now. But we also need to think about economic recovery, in which the low-carbon transformation of energy has to take a central place. This is the time for bold decisions, so far postponed. A strategic rebuilding of the sector must be announced today to help society emerge from the crisis and provide long-term benefits.

The EU is ready to co-finance our energy transformation ― what does the Polish government have to say?

On 17 July the European Council will launch the final negotiations on the EU budget, unprecedented in scale and intended to pull the EU out of recession and give it a new boost. Since December 2019 Poland has been part of the EU discussions, trying to distance itself from climate neutrality in 2050. Although all other Member States agreed to it.   For the time being, however, it seems that we may be one of the countries that will benefit most from the distribution of funds―we may gain over PLN 140 billion for the energy transition alone. Yet, the money will not be granted unconditionally. Poland needs to have a plan in place to achieve the EU's common goals―to commit to climate neutrality and to contribute to a 40% or even 55% reduction in emissions by 2030.

Renewables in the Polish energy mix. Still not enough to meet the targets

The energy transformation has accelerated significantly. Thanks to the enormous cost reduction of solar PV and onshore wind, these technologies are increasingly being chosen by the private sector and households as an investment that allows for significant savings. In recent years, however, the development of renewable energy sources (RES) has depended on state policies and support schemes. They were to enable Poland to achieve the so-called RES target - renewables were to account for 15% of gross final energy consumption in 2020[1]. According to our estimates, the target is still far from being achieved - in 2019 the share of RES amounted to 11.5% only and everything indicates that this year too, the result of 15% is out of reach.  

Energy sector integration | Key to becoming climate-neutral by 2050

The future energy mix will be dominated by renewable energy sources (RES) with zero production costs, such as wind farms and photovoltaics. The abundance of cheap electricity will allow for the replacement of fossil fuels, both in heating and transport sectors. Effective integration of these sectors, within one energy system, will also help to solve the problem of weather-dependent RES production.

55% ― only without panic

EU climate policy is accelerating again. The European Commission has just proposed raising the target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions until 2030 to 55%. Poland has always opposed ambitious goals, but now a breakthrough seems possible―the end of coal is inevitable, we must take care of energy security, after coronavirus we need new investments, and reducing CO2 emissions is associated with improving air quality, which the government defines as a strategic challenge. By taking these measures now, in heat, electricity and transport, emissions can be reduced by over 40%. The remaining cuts will come from the new policies on industry and agriculture and the sharing of efforts between Member States.

Five energy projects that must happen in 2021

The future begins today, not tomorrow. The year 2020 was unusual in many ways, so many people will be relieved that it is now ending. But in terms of the energy transition, it was a watershed year. The European Union reached agreement on the European Green Deal. In Poland, the government and labour unions openly admitted that Poles need to talk about the end of the coal era. The energy sector in the country is at a crossroads and it is time for it to choose the right path for its further operation and development in 2021.

Green hydrogen strategy still too gray

The government is about to conclude its public consultation of the draft Polish Hydrogen Strategy until 2030 with an Outlook until 2040. It gives hope that this time around Poland will join other European countries in the early stages of creating new technological solutions and supply chains. It is a chance for building national potential in a new industry and creating jobs. However, the hydrogen strategy is not yet reflected in other strategic documents defining the future of the Polish energy sector.  

Obligation to sell electricity on power exchange―no time for sudden moves

The Ministry of Climate and Environment have announced its plans to abolish the obligation to sell electricity on power exchange by generators, a so-called ‘obligo’. A public consultation on the proposed law is underway. The topic seems technical and niche. But the effects of the planned changes will be widespread: with the electricity market not very competitive, the abolition of the obligation will increase wholesale prices and have a negative impact on consumers―mainly industrial ones. This is a step backwards in terms of competition and transparency of the electricity market in Poland.

EU Recovery Fund: 3 things Poland needs to do for the mechanism to bring real change

The National Recovery Plans are built on credit. The investments we design today must serve future generations—our children—because we all will be paying it back until 2057. It is based on concrete reforms, changes that need to happen in order to achieve the intended objectives. The consultations on the recovery plan in Poland is now coming to an end. How should we change it so that the money pays off in the future? In this opinion, I refer to the Green Energy and Energy Efficiency Component.

The purpose of the EU-ETS and its pending reforms

Since the beginning of the year, CO2 emission allowance prices have risen by 70%, from EUR 30 to over EUR 50 per tonne. The rate of this increase has again triggered discussion in Poland on the purpose of the Emissions Trading System’s (EU-ETS) existence. Meanwhile, the EU discussion on the ETS, which is due to begin shortly, will not be about whether to abolish the system, but how to reform it so that the EU can achieve its decarbonization goals. Carbon pricing will be the most important tool for achieving the EU's 55% emissions reduction target in 2030. In this text, we explain the system’s basic operational principles and highlight expected discussion topics and possible upcoming changes. 

Poland needs 2 GW of new photovoltaic capacity annually - that's why prosumers should be supported

The government is announcing changes in the support system for prosumers. The combination of the current operational support scheme (a version net-metering, called “rebates”), subsidies in the form of the “Mój Prąd” program and tax credits resulted in rapid development of solar energy in Poland. Within a few years the installed capacity in micro-installations increased from 200 MW to 3.3 GW. Security of energy supply in the summer has strengthened, CO2 emissions have been reduced and the generation mix has become more diversified to some extent. Citizens have fallen in love with renewables for good. So what’s next?

NABE - the hibernatus of the Polish energy sector

In the film with Louis de Funès, a separate, unreal world was created for the titular hibernatus to make him feel comfortable in the new reality. With the National Energy Security Agency (NABE) that the government is proposing for coal power, it is similar. The ring-fencing of coal assets is necessary because they are making increasing losses, the power companies are in debt, and with the coal burden in the new reality they are running out of finance to invest. However, without a cost-benefit analysis for the economy and society, or an assessment of the risks, NABE, instead of unlocking the transition, may hibernate it and introduce chaos that will threaten Poland's energy security.

FIT FOR 55 - what will the package contain?

On 14 July, the European Commission will publish the Fit for 55 package consisting of several legislative proposals. This will officially launch the discussion on measures to achieve the interim EU climate neutrality target, i.e. a 55% reduction of CO2 emissions compared to 1990. Before these rules finally come into force, they have to be accepted by EU member countries (i.e. the Council) and the European Parliament. The negotiations will take at least a year, most likely - two. The changes will not be law until 2024, but it is high time we considered how to implement them for the benefit of the climate and the economy.

From 2025 coal will leave the Polish energy system in waves

Poland’s energy sector is entering a period of major turbulence. The immediate question is the continued operation of the Turów power station since the EU Court of Justice recently ordered the suspension of lignite mining there. This is just the beginning of the problems. After 2025, when public support ends, the first 8 GW of coal capacity may leave the Polish system, and a little later, another 6 GW. The power plants will be shut down due to age and costs. Observing the government’s actions, one can get the impression that all hope lies in the proposed National Agency for Energy Security . Yet, this is a side discussion because no change in ownership structure will improve the situation of the failing coal power industry. Instead, difficult decisions must be made, and the possibilities of supporting the operation of coal-fired power plants with public money are already very limited.

The spectre of the ETS gap

In the following months, negotiations on the Fit for 55 package, which was proposed by the European Commission in July this, year will continue. One of the key elements of these negotiations is the reform of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS). The Polish government is arguing that the number of allowances allocated to Poland will be lower than the emissions of installations covered by the ETS, creating a so-called imbalance of CO2 emission allowances. Where does the imbalance come from, and can it be reduced? And is this the most important element in negotiations of the new EU ETS? We explain below.

10 steps to overcome the energy crisis

The prices of coal, gas, and CO2 are reaching record levels while the price for electricity is galloping, causing panic among politicians, energy consumers, and institutions responsible for maintaining Poland’s energy security. There is a state of emergency in the Polish energy sector caused by, among other things, the situation on the energy source market, but not only. The country is also bearing the consequences of many years of postponing necessary modernisation decisions. It is time to take urgent actions that match the situation.

E-mobility - a chance for further development of economic cooperation between Poland and Germany

The Polish and German economies work in a system of interconnected vessels.Even if the echoes of the visit of the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Poland suggest that there are many issues that divide us, there are also those that unite us. For instance the development of electromobility may raise this cooperation to a higher level, but it is necessary to prepare strategically for it.  The focus should be on cooperation in the area of technological developmentbattery production and recycling, joint planning of infrastructure, as well as exchange and sharing of knowledge, especially in the area of innovation.

Poland has spent more than a trillion zloty (EUR 220 billion) on fossil fuel imports since 2000

In recent months, rising energy prices have caused panic among policymakers. Gas and coal prices on world markets are at record highs, and crude oil is also becoming more expensive. In addition, Poland has become one of the EU countries most dependent on fossil fuel imports.

Lack of transformation hikes energy prices, not climate policy

A recent information campaign led by energy companies and echoed by politicians,  suggests that CO2 accounts for as much as 60% of the electricity cost. This message creates an impression that the cost of buying allowances amounts to 60 percent of the end users’ electricity bill. But this is not the case. It does a great deal of harm - it distracts attention from the fundamental problems of the Polish energy sector. It distances us from solutions that can effectively stop price increases. In this article - on the basis of adopted assumptions (presented in the annex) we present, among others, what energy prices for households are actually made of.

The end of energy resource imports from Russia?

On February 24, Russia started the Ukrainian war. Nothing will be the same again. Russia's brutal attack made the ongoing conflict around energy resources all the more obvious. In 2021 alone Russia could have earned PLN 500 billion (or $120 billion). from the export of energy resources[1]. This revenue funds the Kremlin's military spending. Now we are considering whether giving up Russian fossil fuels is possible. Undoubtedly, this would be a radical solution with far-reaching and not entirely known consequences. If this were to happen, solidarity and close cooperation within the EU would be more important than ever before. In this article, we analyze what options Poland has to break its energy dependence on Russia.

Ukraine's Power System: Peace and War

On 16 March, Ukraine was synchronised with the electricity grid of continental Europe, bidding a permanent farewell to the systems of Russia and Belarus. The connection took place in an urgent and emergency procedure. This is an important step towards sustainable cooperation with the European Union. But today, in Ukraine, there is first and foremost a warfare, as well as an energy war, which is no less important for the lives of the civilian population of Ukraine and Europe as a whole.

Is the Kremlin turning off the gas tap? Time to exclude gas and coal from households

How to prepare households for an energy war with Russia? Gazprom is suspending gas supplies to Poland under the Yamal contract. This is no great surprise. At the end of this year, Poland was going to give up buying Russian gas anyway. Physically, there is unlikely to be a shortage of gas, but Poland is entering a period of high prices, which will limit the use of this raw material. The role of the state should be to wisely support society in smoothly passing through the crisis. Without reducing demand in sectors where it is possible, this will be difficult.

Whom to ask how Poland spends billions from the Modernisation Fund?

The European Union has decided to allocate 2% of the allowances from its emissions trading system (EU-ETS) for support to poorer countries in their energy transition. Since 2021 this money is transferred to Poland, among others. The local operator – the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management – has been distributing the funds without adequate public scrutiny and information. A year after taking charge of the Modernisation Fund, there is no transparent website to adequately inform society and potential applicants on what and how over EUR 11 bn (PLN 50 bn) is to be spent (and a further increase is on the table). This article deals with the consequences of the current flaws in this process and why their removal is so important for Poland.

RRP: The bare minimum for over €9bn

With one year delay the national Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) is entering Poland. So far, the discussion around the RRP has focused primarily on money. Meanwhile – and this is particularly evident in the area of energy transition – the RRP is an instrument that has mobilised the Polish government to work out the necessary reforms, involving an in-depth analysis of challenges ahead, assessment of specific solutions, and necessary legal changes, all within specific timeframe. Investment support – although crucial – plays a secondary role in accelerating the implementation of reforms.  

Ukraine’s Preparations for a Wartime Winter

Ukraine has prepared relatively well for the heating season, despite the Russian invasion and subsequent war, which has been ongoing for more than six months. The accumulated stocks of coal and gas are likely to be sufficient to ensure heat and electricity supply. The decline in demand for electric power due to reduced economic activity during the war is greater than the lost generation potential, enabling Ukraine to export electricity to the EU. The biggest challenge will be to secure heating if the Russian shelling of CHP plants intensifies. This could cause a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine and increase the number of refugees.  

How to maintain Belchatow's energy future

Europe is going through its biggest energy crisis ever. The attention of decision makers is focused on ensuring energy and heat supplies in the coming months. Meanwhile, long-term challenges and problems in the energy sector that have not been solved before are only accumulating. One of them is the future of the largest power plant in Poland.

Conclusions from the 7th capacity market auction - cleaner, but adequacy remains a challenge

The results of the seventh auction in the Polish capacity market clearly show the dilemma Poland has faced - existing high-carbon (coal) capacity can no longer be supported with this mechanism, while gas is risky due to the geopolitical situation. Although Polish energy companies have not completely abandoned gas projects, fewer appeared in the auction than previously announced. There is also clearly a greater variety of technologies than before - for the first time, contracts were granted to storage.  The market is still expensive - for the second year in a row auctions ended in the first round and at the maximum price.

Russian oil disappearing from Europe

In 2021, about a quarter of the oil used in the EU, about €48 billion worth in total, came from Russia. The invasion of Ukraine prompted EU countries to impose sanctions on this commodity. However, the sanctions contain loopholes that have made Poland the EU’s largest importer of Russian oil.  While sealing the sanctions regime is possible, electrification of transportation will in the long run safeguard against the risk of replacing dependence on Russia with dependence on other petrostates.

Billions of Euros for LNG and LPG still flowing from the EU to Russia

The EU embargo on Russian fuels did not extend to natural gas (including LNG, liquefied natural gas) or LPG (liquefied petroleum gas). In 2022 alone, EU countries paid as much as 16 billion euros for Russian LNG, a record high. Poland did not import any LNG from Russia, however it is the largest importer of LPG in the entire EU. In 2022, Poland spent about 700 million euros on Russian LPG. In this article, Forum Energii will explain how to close the loopholes in the EU embargo on Russian resources to finally eliminate them from the EU market.

Anatomy of Dependence: How to Eliminate Rosatom from Europe

EU countries depend on cooperation with Russia in the field of nuclear energy. This has meant that even despite the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Rosatom corporation has not been sanctioned and trade in this sector is growing. This situation is unfavourable for the EU and increases its vulnerability to blackmail from Russia. Moreover, it strengthens the Russian military. The EU should increase its efforts to diversify supplies and build its own capabilities in the nuclear sector.

Panel expert meeting | International heating strategies | Recommendations for Poland

11.6.2018 CZIiTT, Politechnika Warszawska ul. Rektorska 4, Warszawa

Forum Energii is leading a project "Clean Heat" that aim is to support the development of a Polish country heating strategy in the context of European 2030 CO2 targets and heavy air pollution. The panel of experts on the June 11, 2018 is an element of this project and was dedicated to transition strategies of the heating sector in Europe.  

Panel expert meeting | Locational market - an answer to the challenges in the Polish power system?

18.9.2018 CZIiTT, Politechnika Warszawska ul. Rektorska 4, Warszawa

The energy market is undergoing major changes. The most important motivation for reforms is the lack of appropriate price signals to invest in energy and the lack of mechanisms to reward flexibility. Is a locational market an answer to the challenges in the system? Its pros and cons were discussed during the panel of experts on the September 18, 2018. 

Energy Innovation Hub | Aurora's outlook for Polish power market

3.7.2018 Forum Energii, ul. Chopina 5a/20, Warszawa

On July 3, 2018, Forum Energii inaugurated the cycle of meetings called Energy Innovation Hub. During these meetings, we will discuss trends and innovations in the energy sector together with group of experts. The main guests of the first meeting were Dr. Manuel Koehler and Hanns Koenig from Aurora Energy Research. They presented their forecasts for the development of the energy market in Poland after the introduction of the capacity market.

Workshop | eXtremOS | Extreme developments and the value of flexibility

17.5.2019 Warszawa

In most cases, discussions on the future shape of the energy system are focused on the possible developments. However, this does not include discussions on such scenarios, which are extreme in nature and can be destructive for the market and the system. In this context, it is the ability of the system to react quickly to these events, i.e. its flexibility, that determines its stability. The essence of flexibility will be discussed by the participants of the international eXtremOS workshop on 17 May 2019 in Warsaw.

Expert meeting | Climate and energy big picture 2030 after the European elections

4.7.2019 Warszawa

On the 4th of July, Forum Energii organized a debate on EU post-elections priorities 2030 in the field of energy and climate. What are the challenges awaiting the next European Commission and Parliament? What should be the EU key priorities regarding energy transition in the next 10 years? We discussed it within a group of key organizations from the energy, climate and transport sector. 

Panel expert meeting | Back to the future | How to change the energy market?

12.9.2019 Warszawa

The energy transition starts with the energy market. Digitalization, decentralization and decarbonization put pressure on the functioning of the market. Poland is on the threshold of such a discussion, and the package "Clean energy for all Europeans" is its prologue. The impact of this package on the energy sector is the subject of a panel of experts organized on 12 September by Forum Energii. 

Workshop on the use of National Recovery Funds for the EVs charging network

10.3.2021 zoom

In December 2020 European leaders decided to raise the climate target to - 55%. It follows the decision taken a year earlier, which is to achieve European climate neutrality goal by 2050. Very decisive action is required to meet these ambitious climate targets for transforming the way our societies function. The transport sector is responsible for approximately one-third of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. The implementation of emission reduction plans will not be possible without a deep transformation of the whole transport sector. The optimal scenario for reducing emissions from transportation is its complete electrification. This will only be possible if access to a charging infrastructure that meets the needs of different road transport participants is secured. We invite you to a Polish-German workshop on how the National Recovery Plans should be used to optimally support the development of networks for charging electric vehicles - cars, vans, buses and trucks.   

Panel expert meeting | Fit for 55: How the EU intends to achieve increased reduction targets

30.6.2021 Cambridge Innovation Centre

In mid-July, the European Commission will announce one of the biggest legislative packages, Fit for 55. It will aim to put the EU on the path to faster reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, so that the Union can achieve the agreed goal of at least 55% reduction in 2030. The European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is to be reformed. Even more needs to be done to reduce emissions from buildings and transport, so the Commission wants to make proposals on carbon pricing for these sectors. All this will have an impact on the low-carbon energy, heating and transport transformation, but also on fuel and energy prices.

LeadAir program conference | Urban Strategies for Energy Security and Climate Neutrality

14–16.9.2022 Warszawa

The challenges facing cities have changed dramatically - the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian aggression in Ukraine, the energy emergency, ever-increasing expenses and ever-decreasing budgets. Local government action is key to responding thoughtfully and effectively in rapidly changing circumstances. Cities must be resilient, safe, accessible and green.