Poland: climate neutrality by 2050. Electrification and sector coupling
Electrification sets the direction of inevitable changes in many areas of our lives, including transport and heating. This direction will force a closer cooperation of various sectors of the economy with the future, completely different from today's power system. The integration of three industries — transportation, heat, and power generation— is the new concept for the operation of the entire energy sector. What can it look like in 2050? How will the necessary changes bring Poland closer to the goal of climate neutrality? Forum Energii in the new analysis convinces that a good strategy of sector coupling is a benefit for the Polish economy and society.
Electrification of the heating and transport sectors is the future. No emissions electricity is the noblest form of primary energy we can imagine today. In the perspective of 5-10 years it is difficult to expect revolutionary changes in the power sector, because we must use the technologies and grids we know. In this analysis we wanted to show a vision of the power system 2050, because then it is easier to avoid wrong decisions now. We are publishing the analysis at an excellent moment, because in a short time the European Commission will show a vision of linking the energy sectors. We believe that emissions from the energy sector will fall significantly - by 85% by 2050. I believe that the energy system of the future is very encouraging for Poland and that it is worth betting on new technologies. We still have a chance to make them our specialty. - says Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera, President of the Forum Energii.
What can be achieved through sector coupling?
- Optimal use of primary energy resources
- Cost rationalization
- Ensuring the flexibility of the NPS
- Reduction of CO2 emissions
- Increasing energy security
How to execute sector coupling?
By 2050 the Polish energy sector may become climate-neutral. The basis for such a system will be renewable sources and green hydrogen. Its production in periods of energy oversupply will not only partially replace natural gas, but also effectively store energy. This green hydrogen will enable the future reduction of CO2 emissions from the power and heating sectors to zero. - says Andrzej Rubczyński, director for heating strategy in the Forum Energii. - It is important that the electrification of heating and transport based on national renewable sources will make Poland independent from the supply of energy resources from other countries. Poland can be fully energy independent. - adds Andrzej Rubczyński.
The electrification and merging of sectors means a change in the electricity market model, as there will be different - compared to the current - challenges related to balancing the power system. To this end, different forms of electricity storage should be foreseen, seasonal storage of heat or hydrogen, green hydrogen peak units, demand side management or cross-border trade in electricity should be planned. At the same time, one should not forget about the need to significantly improve the energy efficiency of buildings to make them less energy intensive. Solutions to increase the flexibility of the power system will also be important, such as managing charging and discharging of electric vehicle batteries and managing heat pumps. It will be necessary to introduce dynamic electricity tariffs, which with the help of market incentives will increase the flexibility of the system.
Key figures and conclusions for 2050:
- 80% and 8% - of individual heating and district heat will be ensured by heat pumps
- 42% - of demand for gas in the electricity sector will be covered
by domestic production of green hydrogen
- 82% of all vehicles will be EVs
- 85% - of energy will be sourced from variable renewables
Date of publication
19 June 2020
Report concept and substantive supervision:
Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera PhD, Forum Energii
Andrzej Rubczyński, Forum Energii
Navigant, A Guidehouse Company