2022 was another year of unexpected events. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine changed Europe’s approach to fossil fuel imports, particularly from Russia. The resulting energy crisis triggered by high gas prices and the decline in nuclear and hydroelectric production led to record high energy prices across Europe. These events are changing the way European countries look at the energy transition. Meanwhile, the modernisation of the Polish energy sector is still very slow. An overview of the increasingly comprehensive data on the energy sector is published by Forum Energii in the sixth edition of the report ‘Energy Transition in Poland. Edition 2023’.

On top of the economic slowdown in 2020 caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 was the next year when the cards dealt unexpected circumstances that diverged from the previous years of stability. In Europe, we experienced an energy crisis marked by sharp spikes in gas prices and CO2 emission costs. The wartime reality of 2022 means even more uncertainty and market volatility with energy security and independence from imported raw materials becoming the most important topics. Poland continues drifting along in the modernisation of the energy sector, as clearly indicated by data collected by Forum Energii in its annual report “Energy Transition in Poland”.

A recent information campaign led by energy companies and echoed by politicians,  suggests that CO2 accounts for as much as 60% of the electricity cost. This message creates an impression that the cost of buying allowances amounts to 60 percent of the end users’ electricity bill. But this is not the case. It does a great deal of harm - it distracts attention from the fundamental problems of the Polish energy sector. It distances us from solutions that can effectively stop price increases. In this article - on the basis of adopted assumptions (presented in the annex) we present, among others, what energy prices for households are actually made of.

It’s PLN 560 billion [EUR 124 bln]. This is the amount Poland can allocate for the energy transition and phaseout of coal thanks to EU membership. This is a historic opportunity to shift the Polish economy—including the energy sector—to the low-carbon track and develop new industries. Although last year the Polish government declared the intention to pursue climate neutrality in line with EU policy, Poland’s decision-makers are anxious that the country will not be able to handle the challenge of decarbonisation. At the same time, the government’s relations with EU institutions are deteriorating, making talks about the EU funds difficult. So then, what resources are at stake?

In the following months, negotiations on the Fit for 55 package, which was proposed by the European Commission in July this, year will continue. One of the key elements of these negotiations is the reform of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS). The Polish government is arguing that the number of allowances allocated to Poland will be lower than the emissions of installations covered by the ETS, creating a so-called imbalance of CO2 emission allowances. Where does the imbalance come from, and can it be reduced? And is this the most important element in negotiations of the new EU ETS? We explain below.

On 14 July, the European Commission will publish the Fit for 55 package consisting of several legislative proposals. This will officially launch the discussion on measures to achieve the interim EU climate neutrality target, i.e. a 55% reduction of CO2 emissions compared to 1990. Before these rules finally come into force, they have to be accepted by EU member countries (i.e. the Council) and the European Parliament. The negotiations will take at least a year, most likely - two. The changes will not be law until 2024, but it is high time we considered how to implement them for the benefit of the climate and the economy.

Work on the European Green Deal is accelerating. The main tool to achieve the new targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the EU will be the Fit for 55 package. Among its key elements is support for reducing CO2 emissions from buildings and transport. For Poland, this debate will be uncomfortable because over the course of three decades, not only has pollution not decreased but it has increased considerably in transport. This results in terrible air quality in Poland. Catching up, which is necessary for both climate reasons and the modernisation of outdated infrastructure and improvement of air quality, will be a challenge. The introduction of emission charges is intended to help. In its latest study, Forum Energii proposes measures to internalise the external costs of emissions in a way that is smooth, gradual, and socially acceptable.

Since the beginning of the year, CO2 emission allowance prices have risen by 70%, from EUR 30 to over EUR 50 per tonne. The rate of this increase has again triggered discussion in Poland on the purpose of the Emissions Trading System’s (EU-ETS) existence. Meanwhile, the EU discussion on the ETS, which is due to begin shortly, will not be about whether to abolish the system, but how to reform it so that the EU can achieve its decarbonization goals. Carbon pricing will be the most important tool for achieving the EU's 55% emissions reduction target in 2030. In this text, we explain the system’s basic operational principles and highlight expected discussion topics and possible upcoming changes. 

The production of electricity from coal in Poland is decreasing. For the first time in the country’s history, in 2020 coal’s share in the generation mix dropped below 70%. Renewable sources have slowly started to play a more important role in the mix, as well as gas. In the midst of the pandemic, domestic production has fallen faster than demand, and this gap is filled by energy imports. Poland remains the most expensive electricity market in the region.

At least 55%—this is the reductions target proposed by the European Commission for greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2030. There is no turning back from increasingly demanding climate policy. In its latest analysis, Forum Energii shows how Poland can meet this policy.