Poland’s energy sector is entering a period of major turbulence. The immediate question is the continued operation of the Turów power station since the EU Court of Justice recently ordered the suspension of lignite mining there. This is just the beginning of the problems. After 2025, when public support ends, the first 8 GW of coal capacity may leave the Polish system, and a little later, another 6 GW. The power plants will be shut down due to age and costs. Observing the government’s actions, one can get the impression that all hope lies in the proposed National Agency for Energy Security . Yet, this is a side discussion because no change in ownership structure will improve the situation of the failing coal power industry. Instead, difficult decisions must be made, and the possibilities of supporting the operation of coal-fired power plants with public money are already very limited.

Transport accounts for the largest share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the European Union and is the only sector in which emissions have been increasing in recent years. The goal of climate neutrality and the increased reduction target for 2030 will not be achievable without a revolution in transport, as confirmed by the ‘Fit for 55’ package published by the European Commission. Given the years of a lack of effective policies in this area in the Visegrad countries, implementing appropriate measures to reduce emissions from transport becomes an urgent challenge. The hope is in electrification, especially of passenger cars.

Work on the European Green Deal is accelerating. The main tool to achieve the new targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the EU will be the Fit for 55 package. Among its key elements is support for reducing CO2 emissions from buildings and transport. For Poland, this debate will be uncomfortable because over the course of three decades, not only has pollution not decreased but it has increased considerably in transport. This results in terrible air quality in Poland. Catching up, which is necessary for both climate reasons and the modernisation of outdated infrastructure and improvement of air quality, will be a challenge. The introduction of emission charges is intended to help. In its latest study, Forum Energii proposes measures to internalise the external costs of emissions in a way that is smooth, gradual, and socially acceptable.

Since the beginning of the year, CO2 emission allowance prices have risen by 70%, from EUR 30 to over EUR 50 per tonne. The rate of this increase has again triggered discussion in Poland on the purpose of the Emissions Trading System’s (EU-ETS) existence. Meanwhile, the EU discussion on the ETS, which is due to begin shortly, will not be about whether to abolish the system, but how to reform it so that the EU can achieve its decarbonization goals. Carbon pricing will be the most important tool for achieving the EU's 55% emissions reduction target in 2030. In this text, we explain the system’s basic operational principles and highlight expected discussion topics and possible upcoming changes. 

At least 55%—this is the reductions target proposed by the European Commission for greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2030. There is no turning back from increasingly demanding climate policy. In its latest analysis, Forum Energii shows how Poland can meet this policy.

On 4 March the European Commission has just presented a draft climate law. Its most important point is the commitment to achieve the EU's climate neutrality by 2050. But the Commission also announces an increase in the shorter term reduction target for 2030. This is an aspect that Poland needs to pay particular attention to, as we will not avoid discussing how to get closer to this target in next ten years.

What actually happened at the recent European Council? Poland supported the goal of climate neutrality or quite the contrary? What can be expected in the coming months? Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk and Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera discuss the results of the European Council conclusions and its implications.

On the 8th of November 2019, the Ministry of Energy has presented an updated draft of Poland's Energy Policy until 2040. Yet, the adoption of the energy strategy will be the responsibility of the new government, including new ministries - the Ministry of State Assets and the Ministry of Climate. In our opinion, it is high time for Poland to address the climate and energy crisis. It is also important for us to start implementing the commitments made at the EU forum. The energy sector should be given a course in line with international trends, and not be allowed to float in a random direction.

Polish-French relations have become a bit difficult lately. When President Macron said in an interview that the Paris climate protesters should move to Warsaw because it is Poland that is blocking European climate ambitions, Poland was in turmoil. Leaving aside the emotions, it is worth looking at how the French are coping with the energy transformation. This is what the new analysis of the Forum Energii is about.

Just before the UN climate summit in New York, the CDU/CSU and SPD coalition announced new ideas on how to achieve Germany's 2030 climate targets. For now, these are mainly national measures, but a similar discussion and perhaps similar solutions will emerge at European level. This will have a significant impact on the EU regulations concerning the energy sector, and thus also on Poland.